Cardinal Basketball

An Updated Look At Louisville’s NCAA Tournament Resume

Chris Humphrey

With just two games remaining for Louisville in the regular season, let’s take a look at the Cards current resume.

Louisville’s Resume 2/25

Overall Record: 23-6

Conference Record: 14-4

NET Ranking: 11

KenPom: 12

ESPN BPI: 9

Strength of Schedule: 44

Strength of Record: 13

Net Rankings – Quadrant System

Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75.
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135.
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240.
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353.

Quad 1 record: 4-5

Net Opponent Result Score
No. 6 Duke Win 79-73
No. 8 Florida St. Loss 78-65
No. 8 @ Florida St. Loss 82-67
No. 22 Michigan Win 58-43
No. 15 Texas Tech (N) Loss 70-57
No. 21 @ Kentucky Loss 78-70
No. 53 @ NC State Win 77-57
No. 56 @ Notre Dame Win 67-64
No. 74 @ Clemson Loss 77-62

 

Quad 2 Record: 6-1

Net Opponent Result Score
No. 51 Virginia Win 80-73
No. 67 Syracuse Win 90-66
No. 75 Akron Win 82-76
No. 74 Clemson Win 80-62
No. 79 @ G-Tech Loss 68-64
No. 101 @ Pitt Win 73-78
No. 99 @ Miami Win 87-74

 

Quad 3 Record: 8-0

Net Opponent Result Score
No. 79 G-Tech Win 68-34
No. 96 North Carolina Win 72-55
No. 98 Miami Win 74-58
No. 100 Pitt Win 64-46
No. 108 Indiana St. Win 91-62
No. 109 Wake Forest Win 86-76
No. 128 Western KY (N) Win 71-54
No. 149 @ Boston College Win 86-86

 

Quad 4 Record: 5-0

Net Opponent Result Score
No. 209 Miami (OH) Win 70-46
No. 239 Youngstown St. Win 78-55
No. 293 NC Central Win 87-58
No. 314 USC Upstate Win 76-50
No. 323 Eastern KY Win 99-67

Losing to Florida State on the road doesn’t do much damage at all to Louisville’s resume, but the Cards still have just one “signature” win.

Outside of Louisville’s win at Duke, their home win against Michigan in early December is their next best win. The Wolverines were the hottest team in college hoops when they played Louisville, but quickly hit a skid starting Big Ten play with a 2-6 record. Fortunately for Louisville, Michigan has turned it around winning seven of their last eight games and is up to No. 22 in the NET Rankings, making it a quad 1 victory for the Cards.

For the first 24 games of the season Louisville was one of the rare top teams that could brag about the quality of their losses. Texas Tech, Kentucky and Florida State are three losses that don’t do much damage to your resume. But things changed for Louisville a couple weeks ago when they lost back to back games to non-tournament teams. Fortunately, both Clemson and Georgia Tech have climbed in the NET Rankings since knocking off Louisville. Clemson is up to No. 74, making it a quad one game and Georgia Tech is just four spots away from entering quad one status. The Cards will be held accountable for both losses, but they’re not quite as bad as you might’ve expected when they occurred.

NCAA Seeding – Best Case – 2 Seed

Even if Louisville wins out and somehow beats both Florida State and Duke in the ACC Tournament, I think the best they can do is a 2-seed. In all honesty, that might not even be enough to bump them ahead of other teams that are competing for the 2-seeds. I’d say the most likely outcome over the next few weeks would be wins over Virginia Tech and Virginia followed by a 1-1 record in the ACC Tournament. I’d say that would result in Louisville being seeded as a 3 or a 4 depending on what other teams do.

 

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