Numbers Show That Louisville Has A 50/50 Chance Of Winning The National Title

Pete Cautilli - The Cardinal Connect

Pete Cautilli – The Cardinal Connect

One of the most interesting statistics surrounding this Louisville Cardinals team is how they lead the nation in average scoring margin. In a season where some fans have had trouble finding something to celebrate, the trend of Louisville whipping up on its opponents has been great. Although many attribute the success to Louisville’s low strength of schedule, it still bodes well for the team’s future.

By looking through the history of average scoring margin, we found that 5 of the last 10 leaders in average scoring margin also were the national champion. However it should be noted that Louisville would have the second lowest strength of schedule on this list.

Average Scoring Margin

Year Team Margin SOS Season Result
2012-13 Florida

17

40

Elite 8
2011-12 Kentucky

17

28

National Champion
2010-11 Belmont

17.5

261

Round of 32
2009-10 Kansas

17.4

16

Round of 32
2008-09 N. Carolina

17.1

15

National Champion
2007-08 Kansas

18.7

9

National Champion
2006-07 Florida

17.2

46

National Champion
2005-06 Texas

14.9

47

Round of 32
2004-05 N. Carolina

17.8

1

National Champion
2003-04 Gonzaga

15.6

100

Round of 32

Extremely strong average scoring margins aren’t just a trend with National Champion but also Final Four Teams. In fact, 45% of the Final Four teams from the past decade have been in the top five of average scoring margin. This includes nine of the last ten national champions. The only National Champion to not be in the top five was Connecticut, who struggled for much of the regular season.

Final Four Teams in Top 5 of Scoring Margin

Year # of Teams Champion ?
2012-13

1

Yes
2011-12

2

Yes
2010-11

0

No
2009-10

1

Yes
2008-09

2

Yes
2007-08

4

Yes
2006-07

1

Yes
2005-06

1

Yes
2004-05

3

Yes
2003-04

3

Yes

Louisville currently stands at an average scoring margin of +21.4, exactly five points higher than second place Louisiana Tech. The top five is rounded out with Iowa, Arizona, and Creighton; three strong Final Four Candidates. Several strong teams like Duke, Wichita St, Florida and Cincinnati help round out the top 10.

As it looks now Louisville is in strong position to maintain a high average scoring margin. By no means is this a guarantee that Louisville will go far in March, but you certainly can’t say it’s not somewhat of an interesting trend.

About Gabe Duverge

Gabe Duverge
Gabe Duverge joined The Cardinal Connect as a contributing writer in the summer of 2013. He has previously written for Bleacher Report and LouisvilleKY.com. You can follow Gabe on Twitter @GabeDuverge.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

*

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>